Commentary

Since we released our original, full-length report on Intelsat and SES a month ago, events have unfolded even more rapidly than we expected, and our confidence in the upside potential of these stocks, largely due to the underappreciated value of their US C-band spectrum, has only grown. Below we briefly summarize some of the key developments…

This post is part of a series of additional research that we conducted following our initial report on ViaSat. Please visit factsaboutviasat.com to access all of our research on ViaSat.

ViaSat’s aviation business is a source of market interest and bullishness.  Much like shareholder enthusiasm for ViaSat’s residential broadband business, we believe much of this optimism is misplaced.

Until ViaSat-3 Asia is in service (likely beyond 2022), ViaSat lacks global coverage. This is a non-starter for many international airlines.  If and when all three ViaSat-3 satellites are…

This post is part of a series of additional research that we conducted following our initial report on ViaSat. Please visit factsaboutviasat.com to access all of our research on ViaSat.

A key flaw in ViaSat’s technology path and business model is the lack of backward compatibility.  ViaSat’s newest satellite, upon which the company’s growth prospects hinge, cannot communicate with its current subscribers. Currently installed aviation equipment is also not compatible with ViaSat-2, which is why management recently cited a “pause” in installation…

We remain short shares of Straight Path Communications. As we argued earlier this month, Straight Path is dramatically overvalued relative to the most appropriate comparable transaction: Verizon’s potential future acquisition of XO Holdings’ millimeter-wave (mmWave) spectrum. Reaching this conclusion does not require any particular skepticism about the prospects of mmWave 5G. However, some investors – apparently taking marketing fluff at…

Today we’re announcing that we sent what’s called a Form 3949-A (Information Referral) to the IRS explaining why we believe DISH is violating tax law by taking approximately a billion dollars per year in tax deductions that it isn’t eligible for. These tax deductions stem from DISH’s amortization of the cost of its spectrum purchases. Some analysts value the cumulative savings over time at $6 per share – roughly 13% of DISH’s current equity value. However,…

Following our report on Sage Therapeutics, six sell-side reports were published defending Sage Therapeutics and insisting that the price decline following our initial report represented a buying opportunity for the discerning investor.  The points made in each report were similar, and we believe the two key points worth discussing are the placebo response rate assumption and the scientific rationale for using SAGE-547…

In the wake of our report on ClubCorp Holdings, several equity-research analysts have attempted to refute our arguments. Their notes focused on four major themes:

• The extent and nature of ClubCorp’s capital expenditures
• The escheatment risk and tax implications of the company’s membership deposit liability…

In the wake of our report on Sage Therapeutics, Asclepia Capital, a biotech-focused hedge fund, released a seven-page response purporting to “debunk” what it characterized as our “superficial analysis.” While we always appreciate substantive criticism, we disagree with all of Asclepia’s key points, which we address one by one below…

A sell-side analyst covering Sage hosted a call with one of the principal investigators (PIs) in SAGE-547’s Phase 3 trial earlier this week.  Although we had already spoken with the PI at length about super-refractory status epilepticus (SRSE) and SAGE-547, we think some of the points raised during the call will be helpful for other investors.

1. The PI agreed with our thesis that patient outcomes are tied to etiology, not temporary inhibition:

Sell-Side Analyst: …What’s your estimate, from your experience, of pediatric mortality? How much does this…

Kerrisdale will host a conference call on Thursday, September 24, 2015 at 11:00am EDT / 17:00 CEST to discuss their report on Bavarian Nordic.

To participate in the conference call, please dial 855-780-5918 (United States), 224-633-1732 (international), or 80-88-42-84 (Denmark) and reference the access code 46857298…

On Monday, December 1st, 2014, we met with the FCC to discuss the use of the unlicensed 2.4 GHz band and how the sophisticated LTE/Wi-Fi coexistence filters prevalent in many mobile devices today would, by subjecting Globalstar’s proposed TLPS to high levels of rejection, substantially impair its usefulness. To view the full comment, please click here.