We are short shares of Mirati Therapeutics, a $4.6bn clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company whose lead drug candidate, MRTX-849, is a small-molecule KRAS inhibitor (KRASi). The KRAS protein plays a critical role in cell proliferation and differentiation, and mutations of the gene that encode it are present in…
We are short shares of Match Group and IAC/InterActiveCorp, two companies trying to break apart before an FTC lawsuit that alleges a disturbing level of civil fraud and a parallel DOJ criminal investigation leads to the market dumping them both. Last September, the FTC sued…
We are short shares of Principia Biopharma, a company whose $2 billion valuation rests on a single obscure molecule known as Bruton’s tyrosine kinase (BTK). Named after a pediatrician who discovered an immunodeficiency later found to be caused by a defective mutant form of…
We are short shares of CareDx, a $1.7bn diagnostics company whose share price has increased by 30x over just the last two years and now trades at over 18x sales. The meteoric rise and generous valuation have come in the wake of excitement over the commercialization of AlloSure, a blood test intended to identify organ rejection in kidney transplant recipients. Transplant nephrologists have long used measures of kidney function to assess the probability of rejection, with a tissue biopsy providing a definitive diagnosis. To hear CareDx tell it, AlloSure is the…
Tucows (TCX) operates two declining tech/telecom businesses and a fledgling low-return fiber division, yet is being valued by the market at 60x trailing normalized earnings. Its two profitable segments barely deserve double-digit earnings multiples given their bleak growth profiles, and the company’s cash flow is being plowed back into a third segment that will prove to be a massive destroyer of capital. TCX’s valuation is wildly overstretched and the stock is worth 50%+ less…
We are short shares of iRhythm Technologies, a $2.3bn medical device company trading at over 15x sales despite facing multiple factors that will dramatically cut its revenue growth in the coming years. iRhythm’s Zio, developed over a decade ago and accounting for nearly all the company’s $150m in sales, is a one-lead heart rate monitor in patch form. This “extended Holter monitor” is worn by patients for up to 14 days, during which the device continuously records heart rhythm data. Each application of a Zio patch costs payors about two to four times what it would cost to use legacy monitoring modalities, but iRhythm claims that the Zio reduces costs for the healthcare system through increased effectiveness and better patient compliance…
We are short shares of Qualcomm Incorporated, a semiconductor company teetering on the brink of disaster. For years, Qualcomm has presented itself as a technological innovator that monetizes its R&D in two ways: 1) selling chips that go into smartphones and other wireless devices and 2) licensing its patent portfolio. The licensing business, despite contributing far less revenue than the chip business, has historically supplied roughly two thirds of Qualcomm’s…
We are short shares of The St. Joe Company, a Florida Panhandle developer with overhyped real estate holdings and a controlling shareholder who will soon be forced to liquidate part of his investment. For more than a decade, St. Joe has lured investors with the promise of unlocking value in large tracts of undeveloped land near Panama City Beach. Every year, however, this promise has remained unfulfilled, because St. Joe’s purported plan for…
We are short shares of QuinStreet, a web-1.0 adtech firm that acts as a middleman between online advertisers and niche web sites. These niche sites attract visitors (leads) who are shopping for, say, a new credit card; QuinStreet acquires those visitors and delivers their data or eyeballs to advertisers, like credit-card companies, earning a fee along the way.
For much of QuinStreet’s eight-year history as a public company, its stock traded at less than half of its IPO price, as investors realized that QuinStreet’s outdated business model is unlikely…
We are short shares of Proteostasis Therapeutics, a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company whose lead drug, PTI-428, aims to treat the genetic disorder cystic fibrosis. Proteostasis claims that the drug works in a unique way, by somehow increasing the levels of messenger RNA and protein corresponding to the so-called CFTR gene that is dysfunctionally mutated in people with the disease and that gives rise to its ultimately fatal…
